NFL Preview: Baltimore Ravens Clash With Nemesis Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, November 06, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Mike Tomlin - NFL Preview: Baltimore Ravens Clash With Nemesis Pittsburgh Steelers

Analysis:
A blowout victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers back in Week 1 helped to propel the Baltimore Ravens to the top of the list of contenders in the AFC.

Pittsburgh has slowly been making its climb back into the conference mix and has hit its stride just in time for Sunday's rematch with Baltimore, this time on the home turf of Heinz Field.

The Steelers aim for a fifth straight victory on the season and seventh in a row at home, including the playoffs. To do that, they'll have to shake off the memories of a turnover-filled 35-7 defeat in Baltimore back on Sept. 11.

The Ravens' defense was in top form in that game. Baltimore forced a franchise-record seven turnovers, intercepting Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger three times and forcing a total of four fumbles. Roethlisberger was also sacked four times, and the Steelers' seven giveaways were their most in a game since also turning the ball over seven times versus Minnesota on Sept. 24, 1995.

With the Ravens having set a club record for their largest margin of victory in games against the Steelers, many expect Pittsburgh to be better prepared for Baltimore's swarming defense in this rematch.

And despite the Steelers having the second-ranked defense in the league behind only the Ravens, Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin was quick to praise the opposition on Tuesday.

Pittsburgh does have a huge win to build off of, as it defeated Tom Brady and the New England Patriots at home for the first time since Oct. 31, 2004 with a 25-17 victory last Sunday.

The Steelers held the ball for almost twice as long as the Patriots, taking some pressure off of their injury-plagued defense. Linebackers James Harrison and James Farrior were out, as was defensive end Aaron Smith. Linebacker LaMarr Woodley also suffered a hamstring issue towards the end of the game, putting his status for this contest in doubt.

Harrison (eye) has been cleared for practice but is unlikely to play until after the team's Nov. 20 bye, while Farrior is battling a calf issue and is questionable. Woodley's hamstring was reported to be a serious injury that could sideline him until the bye, but the linebacker said not to rule him out for this game. Tomlin added that Woodley's ability to practice will decide if he plays.

Wide receiver Hines Ward also missed the New England win with an ankle issue, but is expected to be available for this rematch.

The Steelers are trying to open a season 5-0 at home for the first time since 2007 and have won six of seven since their loss to the Ravens to take a half- game lead over Baltimore and Cincinnati for first place in the division.

The Ravens won four of five to open the season before suffering an ugly 12-7 loss in Jacksonville on Oct. 24. They were then in danger of losing a second straight time last Sunday to an Arizona team that came into the game with only one win, but rallied from 21 points down to beat the Cardinals, 30-27.

Baltimore trailed 24-6 at the break, but outgained Arizona by a 249-56 margin in the second half and scored 24 unanswered points. The Ravens then won it on Billy Cundiff's 25-yard field goal as time expired.

Time & Venue:
- 8:20 PM ET, Sunday, November 6, 2011. Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Last Week's results:
- Baltimore Ravens (-13) beats visiting Arizona Cardinals 30-27.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) beats visiting New England Patriots 25-17.

Last week's ATS:
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) beats visiting New England Patriots 25-17.
- Underdog Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) wins outright.

NFL Football Odds: Steelers -3.5, O/U 42

Next up:
- Baltimore at Seattle, Sunday, November 13
- Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, Sunday, November 13

Roethlisberger (2302 passing yards, 14 TD, 7 INT) has done his best in putting the season-opening game behind him. He has just four interceptions in seven games since getting picked off three times by Baltimore and has thrown 11 touchdown passes over the Steelers' four-game win streak, including two versus the Patriots. Roethlisberger finished that contest with 365 yards on 36-of-50 passing and was also picked off once. Mike Wallace (43 receptions, 5 TD) ended with seven catches for 70 yards, but the wideout's long was only 16 yards as the Patriots looked to take away his deep-play ability. That left plenty of balls for wide receiver Antonio Brown (34 receptions, 1 TD) and tight end Heath Miller (30 receptions, 2 TD), with Brown pulling in nine passes that included his first career touchdown.

Miller had seven receptions for a team-high 85 yards. With Ward (26 receptions, 2 TD) out, Emmanuel Sanders (18 receptions, 2 TD) added five catches for 70 yards against New England. Seeing as the passing offense was clicking and ranks eighth overall in the NFL, starting running back Rashad Mendenhall (421 rushing yards, 3 TD) got just 13 carries last week, but did turn those opportunities into 70 yards for a 5.4 average per carry.

The respected Ravens defense may have yielded 27 points last week, but short fields and a special-teams score inflated that total. The NFL's top-ranked unit (263.3 ypg) actually gave up a mere 207 yards of net offense, including just 98 through the air. On the season, Baltimore ranks third against both the run and the pass. Linebacker Terrell Suggs (33 tackles, 6 sacks, 1 INT) was all over the field against Arizona, recording a game-high 13 tackles and a sack. He has 13 1/2 career sacks versus the Steelers in the regular season, the most any active player has compiled against the franchise.

Safety Ed Reed (27 tackles, 1 sack, 2 INT) had a pair of interceptions in the Week 1 meeting with Pittsburgh and Suggs had three sacks in that game. Linebacker Ray Lewis (55 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) also had a pick and seven tackles in the Week 1 rout, and added five more stops versus the Cardinals. In all, the Ravens logged six sacks against Arizona, getting a pair from pass-rush specialist Paul Kruger (6 tackles, 3 sacks) and one each from cornerback Chris Carr (7 tackles, 1 sack), linebacker Jarret Johnson (26 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and safety Bernard Pollard (21 tackles, 1 sack). Rookie cornerback Jimmy Smith, who suffered an injury at the season's onset and has been working his way back since, is expected to see an expanded role in this game. Though he did not log a tackle versus the Cardinals, he did have one pass defensed.

Keep an eye on Ray Rice. The Steelers' defense has allowed just three 100-yard rushers in its last 58 games dating back to 2007, but Rice has two of them. That includes 107 yards in the Week 1 victory and a 141-yard effort in Pittsburgh on Dec. 27, 2009.

Flacco and Roethlisberger both have their work cut out for them this week, and whichever quarterback finds a way to make plays will likely come out on the winning side. The edge could go to Flacco given the Steelers' issues at linebacker.

Keep Heinz Field involved. The Steelers are always tough to play at home and bring an impressive run into this meeting. The Ravens are just 5-10 all-time at Pittsburgh during the regular season and 0-3 there during the playoffs.

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin needs one victory to become the fourth coach in franchise history with 50 wins.

Anquan Boldin needs 104 yards to reach 9,000 for his career.

Eight of the last meetings between the teams have been decided by seven points or fewer.

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh

While a Week 9 matchup certainly won't decide the AFC North, especially with Cincinnati lurking in the shadows, the victor of this key clash will certainly have an edge should the Steelers and Ravens meet for a third time this season in the playoffs.

That being said, Baltimore's Week 1 victory likely won't factor into how this game will shake down. Enough time and games have passed to make that meeting irrelevant at this point, and the change in venue certainly seems to favor the Steelers. Pittsburgh's injuries on defense could be the x- factor, but the Ravens have been just too inconsistent this year to leave Heinz Field with a win.

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NFL Football Pick: Take Steelers.

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aaron smith - anquan boldin - antonio brown - baltimore ravens - ben roethlisberger - bernard pollard - billy cundiffs - chris carr - ed reed - heath miller

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